After Game 2 and 3 of the Golden State-Memphis series, in which Steph Curry shot a 2 of 11 and 2 of 10 respectively, there was talk about whether Memphis had figured out Curry. There was talk about whether a jump shooting team could win a title relying on outside shooting.

Or was this a case of regression to the mean? This means that after a small sample size that is far from average, future samples will go back to historical averages. In taking a look at Steph Curry’s 3-point numbers this season, we can see a fluctuation around his average percentage of 44.3 percent.  There is clearly a lot of variance in individual game numbers.

Do we see regression to the mean? Steph Curry shot 20 percent or below in 12 regular season games this year, as he did in Game 2 and 3. In the games immediately following those, he shot an average of 42.4 percent.

Game Number	3 Point Made	3 Point Attempts	Percentage
4	4	8	50%
8	3	7	43%
16	1	3	33%
20	1	7	14%
21	3	5	60%
25	5	12	42%
27	2	5	40%
29	4	9	44%
43	2	9	22%
52	4	8	50%
63	6	10	60%
67	3	6	50%

Coincidentally, or not, he shot 45.4 percent in Games 4 and 5. The trends showed this resurgence could happen, and luckily for Warriors fans, it did.