Mike Pence has been in Republican politics for a long time, serving as Congressman and Governor for nearly two decades. Now as Vice President, he sits a heartbeat away from the Presidency. The Democrats have impeached Trump and send the articles to the Senate. If 67 Senators must vote to convict, Pence will sit in the Oval Office. The Democrats, with the possible exceptions of Manchin and Jones, are all-in.
If Pence can convince approximately 25 Republicans to vote yes, he’s in. Should he?
First, let’s look at this through a game theory approach. What are the possible outcomes of his choices?
| GOP Senates want to impeach. | GOP Senators do not want to impeach. | |
| Pence pushes for impeachment. | Pence is POTUS. He runs for re-election, either serving a four-year term or retiring after losing. | Pence does not convince the Senators. Trump finds out and fires him as VP. |
| Peach does not push for impeachment. | Pence is left wondering “What if?” for years to come. | If Trump wins in 2020, Pence runs in 2024. If Trump loses, Pence retires. |
Now let’s break his paths down mathematically. Let’s start with Pence not going for it.
Waiting his turn, Pence’s chance of becoming president is 0.5*0.8*0.3 = 12%. On the other hand…
Based on this analysis, Pence’s chance of becoming president is 20%. However, his chance of serving more than 11 months in office is 0.2*0.3 or 6%. His chance of serving two terms is only 3%.
With all this, it makes sense for Pence to wait his turn. That not only is the smart choice in the long run, but it protects his reputation as a loyal member of the party. No matter what, we’ll be watching.